More Sun. Less Housing Cost. Proximity to Family. According to a recent national survey, these are the top 3 reasons why Americans move from state to state. But with all the talk of the Bay Area exodus, you may be wondering if California has the greatest number of outbound residents, or what age groups are moving the most. This week – the Homes of Silicon Valley data drop answers these questions and more in accordance with the results of United Van Lines' 44th Annual National Migration Study and Realtor.com.

WHO IS MOVING THE MOST AND IN WHICH DIRECTION?

Realtor.com asserts that those who relocated during the pandemic “are more likely to be retirees and younger workers seeking high-paying jobs in areas with strong economies.” Similarly, United Van Lines (UVN) reports that 40% of Americans who moved last year did so for a new job or transfer (a decrease from prior years) while 27% moved to be closer to family (a significant increase from prior years). 2020 also marked a year in which migration patterns moved distinctly West & South, as seen on the UVN map HERE.

HOW DID THE PANDEMIC IMPACT MOVING TRENDS?

Sources are in agreement that COVID-19 accelerated many decisions to move. 57% of those who relocated did so for a change in work status (i.e. remote work), and 53% desired a lifestyle change or improvement of quality in life. Boomers who retired earlier than expected also accounted for a large number of inbound moves.

WHICH STATES HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF INBOUND MOVES?

The top inbound states (with 250 moves or more) of 2020 were: Idaho, South Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida & Arkansas.

WHICH STATES HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF OUTBOUND MOVES?

The top outbound states for 2020 were: New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Ohio & Maryland.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SILICON VALLEY REAL ESTATE TODAY?

Let’s address the elephant in the room – is ‘everyone’ really leaving California as the media depicts? California is #5 on the list of the top 10 states with the most outbound moves. Note that California was #7 on the UVN 2019 outbound rankings, yet that same year it was reported that “nearly the same amount of Californians are moving out of state as the number of people moving into the state.” Not surprisingly, nearly 60% of those inbound to the state came for work, and nearly 23% moved out of the state for retirement (in 2020). The data stands to reason that California holds distinct, high-paying employment opportunities; when workers reach retirement age the income earnings and housing affordability gap don’t always make ‘cents’ anymore. With 10,000 Baby Boomers a day turning 65, it's no wonder the 'exodus' is growing each year.

While it’s too early to tell how the 2021 relocation trends will pan out, we would expect California to remain in the top 10 outbound states with retirees and entry-level employees leading the charge. However, the desire for home ownership in Silicon Valley thus far in 2021 continues to be the tale of supply and demand. There is just as much a season of life for staying & buying in Silicon Valley as there is for leaving.

Just-released data from January 2021 reveals that year-over-year: median home prices are up 13.3%, home sales are up 41.1%, the sales-to-list price ratio is up 3.5%, days on market is down almost 44% and days of inventory is down 42.7%. See more stats on the Real Estate Report Presented By Homes of Silicon Valley and be sure to click on each data point to see previous month and year stats.

(You may have also noticed that our first two listings of the year went pending FAST. Stay tuned for results – but suffice to say multiple offers are involved.)

If you have any questions at all about what the migration trends mean for you and your own short- and long-term goals, please do not hesitate to reach out. ~ Mark

Resources Used:

Here Are the States That Americans Are Fleeing the Fastest—and Why

United Van Lines’ National Migration Study Reveals Where and Why Americans Moved in 2020

Real Estate Report Presented By Homes Of Silicon Valley

California Sees Increase In Outbound Migration

Nearly Same Amount of People Move to California as Move Away